Beijing, Sketsa.id – Throughout 2025, Beijing significantly ramped up military activities and coercive pressure across the Indo-Pacific, raising alarms among regional nations and observers. From simulated blockades around Taiwan to persistent incursions near disputed territories, China’s actions appeared to follow a deliberate pattern of gradual escalation, testing limits while avoiding outright conflict.
Professor Sam Mullins from the Daniel K. Inouye Asia-Pacific Center for Security Studies, part of the U.S. Department of Defense, described these moves as part of Beijing’s “creeping escalation” strategy. In an analysis published by East Asia Forum on February 14, 2026, Mullins highlighted how China’s tactics in the so-called grey zone—actions below the threshold of war—intensified last year, with Taiwan bearing the brunt but the pressure extending far beyond.
The most striking example came in the closing days of 2025, when Taiwan found itself encircled by Chinese warships, military aircraft, and coast guard vessels. China’s Ministry of National Defense framed the operation as a “serious warning” to separatist forces pushing for Taiwan’s independence and to foreign interference. This built on “Justice Mission 2025,” the sixth major exercise since 2022 simulating a blockade of the island. Notably, this drill brought forces closer to Taiwan’s shores than previous ones, underscoring a stepwise push forward.
Taiwan reported a record-breaking 3,700-plus violations of its air defense identification zone (ADIZ) by Chinese aircraft in 2025, accompanied by a surge in cyberattacks. Additional allegations surfaced involving espionage, undersea cable disruptions, disinformation campaigns, and Chinese authorities probing Taiwanese lawmakers on charges seemingly aimed at sowing division.
Mullins pointed out that reunification with Taiwan remains a core element of President Xi Jinping’s vision for national rejuvenation, making the island a primary focus. “Taiwan is targeted more frequently and intensely than anywhere else in the Indo-Pacific,” he noted.
Yet the pressure was not confined to the Taiwan Strait. In the East China Sea, Chinese coast guard ships set a new record by lingering around the Japanese-administered Senkaku Islands for 335 consecutive days—up sharply from the previous high of 215 days. Japan faced multifaceted coercion, including military, economic, and informational pressures, especially after Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi warned that a Chinese invasion of Taiwan could threaten Japan’s very survival.
Tensions also flared in the South China Sea, where confrontations with the Philippines escalated dramatically, including a high-profile ship collision in August. Chinese military aircraft conducted risky maneuvers near Australian and Philippine patrols. Further north, in the Yellow Sea, China unilaterally declared no-sail zones and built maritime infrastructure, clashing with South Korean interests.
Even farther afield, the People’s Liberation Army Navy conducted live-fire drills in the Tasman Sea between Australia and New Zealand—an unprecedented show of force in waters far from China’s core claims. Mullins called this “not just business as usual,” emphasizing that Beijing has steadily expanded boundaries year by year, reshaping the region incrementally.
“Deterrence in the grey zone has failed so far,” Mullins concluded. Responses from affected countries have often been reactive, fragmented, and risk-averse, failing to alter China’s behavior. Isolated condemnations and defensive measures, he argued, have not imposed sufficient costs.
To shift the calculus, Mullins advocated for closer, unified cooperation among the United States and its allies and partners. Military collaboration alone won’t suffice; it must pair with coordinated diplomatic, economic, and informational efforts. He proposed establishing a multinational center dedicated to countering hybrid threats in the Indo-Pacific, modeled on NATO-EU mechanisms in Europe.
Without a more strategic, cohesive approach, Mullins warned, China will continue advancing its territorial and strategic goals, posing growing risks to regional stability and security.
As Indo-Pacific nations grapple with these evolving challenges, the coming years will test whether collective resolve can effectively counter Beijing’s calibrated assertiveness—or if the grey zone will keep expanding unchecked. (*)
